Jacob Fearnley vs Jurij RodionovUS Open Qualifying Round of 32

US Open · ATP · Qualifying Round of 32
#100ATP
1600ELO
1565Hard ELO
$342kYTD
$1.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWLLWWL
1 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 27 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 5 · 1st on
#143ATP
1636ELO
1584Hard ELO
$206kYTD
$1.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 191 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLWWLWWW
Fearnley J.
6-4 4-6 4-6
Rodionov J.
Fearnley J.
6441
Rodionov J.
4662

Jurij Rodionov defeated Jacob Fearnley in the US Open qualifying second round. The match ended with a score of 4-6, 6-4, 6-4. Rodionov converted 3 service breaks to Fearnley's 2 en route to the win.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
53%
Service points won·Slight edge
60%
65%
Return points won·Even
38%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
64%
Aces / match·Even
5.9
5.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.8
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (17 vs 42). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
85
15
Break points saved·Clear edge
96
75
Break points won·Dominant
70
2
Deciding sets·Dominant
99
45
Tiebreaks·Dominant
83
11

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Fearnley J.63%
Rodionov J.37%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Fearnley J. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.8Hard Elo 1565
Surface ELO
5.2+19 Hard Elo edge
4.5Overall Elo 1600
ELO gap
5.5Overall Elo 1636
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.46 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.27 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
54
64

Fearnley J.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 85 games (7d) · Rodionov J.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 71 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CRain
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 87%

Draw