Yue Yuan vs Mary StoianaUS Open Qualifying Round of 64

US Open · WTA · Qualifying Round of 64
#138WTA
1629ELO
1610Hard ELO
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWLLLLLL
1 — 2
Sets
Friday, 28 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 7 · 1st on
#122WTA
1656ELO
1567Hard ELO
23 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWLLLWW
Yuan Y.
3-6 6-4 4-6
Stoiana M.
Yuan Y.
3641
Stoiana M.
6462

Mary Stoiana defeated Yue Yuan 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 in the second round of US Open qualifying. Stoiana converted 70% of her break points and won 7 service breaks to Yuan's 6. Stoiana hit 2 aces and 3 double faults, while Yuan had 6 aces and 1 double fault.

Key context

  • Match story: Mary Stoiana closed it out in three sets, 6–3 4–6 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
48%
Service points won·Even
57%
58%
Return points won·Even
43%
45%
Break points saved·Even
53%
56%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.5
1.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.3
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (43 vs 48). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Yuan Y.53%
Stoiana M.47%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.5+43 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Hard Elo 1567
4.7Overall Elo 1629
ELO gap
5.3Overall Elo 1656
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.94 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.85 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
65
58

Yuan Y.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 64 games (7d) · Stoiana M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 79 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 60%

Draw