Kei Nishikori vs Rei SakamotoUS Open Qualifying Round of 32

US Open · ATP · Qualifying Round of 32
#477ATP
1714ELO
1680Hard ELO
36 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWLLWLWL
0 — 2
Sets
Friday, 28 August 2026 ·
hard
Stadium 17 · 1st on
#157ATP
1608ELO
1589Hard ELO
$235kYTD
$494kCAREER
20 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWLWWLW
Nishikori K.
4-6 6-7
Sakamoto R.
Nishikori K.
4630
Sakamoto R.
6772

Rei Sakamoto defeated Kei Nishikori 6-4, 7-6 in the second round of US Open qualifying. Sakamoto hit 19 aces and committed one double fault, while Nishikori did not record an ace and made four double faults. Sakamoto won 84% of her first-serve points and converted 33% of break points, while Nishikori won 63% of his first-serve points and converted all three of his break points; Sakamoto earned two service breaks to Nishikori's one.

Around the match

  • I couldn't play my best today

    Nishikori K.ATP Tour

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
53%
Service points won·Even
63%
65%
Return points won·Even
37%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
50%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.6
6.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.5
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (10 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
90
49
Break points saved·Slight edge
94
87
Break points won·Dominant
80
8
Deciding sets·Slight edge
100
93
Tiebreaks·Dominant
96
23

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Nishikori K.56%
Sakamoto R.44%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.1+91 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Hard Elo 1589
6.3Overall Elo 1714
ELO gap
3.7Overall Elo 1608
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.55 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.37 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
67
61

Nishikori K.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 66 games (7d) · Sakamoto R.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 70 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
26°COvercast
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 62%

Draw