Dalibor Svrcina vs Mackenzie McdonaldUS Open Qualifying Round of 32

US Open · ATP · Qualifying Round of 32
#134ATP
1640ELO
1624Hard ELO
$304kYTD
$1.3MCAREER
23 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLLLWWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Friday, 28 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 11 · 1st on
#146ATP
1606ELO
1604Hard ELO
$243kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLLLWLLW
Svrcina D.
4-6 6-2 7-5
Mcdonald M.
Svrcina D.
4672
Mcdonald M.
6251

Dalibor Svrcina defeated Mackenzie McDonald 4-6, 6-2, 7-5 in the second round of US Open qualifying. Svrcina converted 83% of his break points, compared to 27% for McDonald, and won five service breaks to McDonald's three. Svrcina hit six aces to McDonald's seven and committed seven double faults to McDonald's five.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
49%
55%
Service points won·Even
58%
62%
Return points won·Slight edge
44%
37%
Break points saved·Even
60%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.8
4.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.0
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
27
28
Break points saved·Dominant
56
87
Break points won·Clear edge
85
73
Deciding sets·Even
6
6
Tiebreaks·
10

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Svrcina D.55%
Mcdonald M.45%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.3+20 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.7Hard Elo 1604
5.4Overall Elo 1640
ELO gap
4.6Overall Elo 1606
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.15 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.34 of last 10 on hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
63
61

Svrcina D.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 70 games (7d) · Mcdonald M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 72 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
26°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 64%

Draw