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Win Probability

Thursday, 27 August 2026
20 rated matches · 3 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchDaniel Rincon vs Tomas Barrios Vera51% · 49%Toss-up · US Open · Q32 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteLiam Draxl vs Andrew Johnson84% · 16%Strong favourite · US Open · Q64 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches203 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalUS Open · Q32 · HardTomas Barrios Vera won 6-4 6-3Daniel Rincon51%Tomas Barrios Vera49%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardTristan Schoolkate won 6-4 7-6(6)Tristan Schoolkate54%Seong Chan Hong46%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 2–1FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardC. O'Connell won 7-5 6-4Nicolai Budkov Kjaer55%C. O'Connell45%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalMonterrey · R16 · HardDarja Vidmanova won 6-4 7-5Cristina Bucsa45%Darja Vidmanova55%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalMonterrey · R16 · HardClara Tauson won 7-6(6) 4-6 6-3Ekaterina Alexandrova45%Clara Tauson55%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–3FinalUS Open · Q32 · HardAndrea Guerrieri won 6-2 6-4Aziz Dougaz55%Andrea Guerrieri45%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalUS Open · Q32 · HardColeman Wong won 6-4 6-3Coleman Wong57%Dusan Lajovic43%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q32 · HardGrigor Dimitrov won Otto Virtanen43%Grigor Dimitrov57%Toss-upNo prior meetingsFinalMonterrey · R16 · HardAnn Li won Maria Timofeeva42%Ann Li58%Slight edgeH2H 0–4FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardGabriela Andrea Knutson won 6-4 6-4Gabriela Andrea Knutson58%Ekaterine Gorgodze42%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardLucrezia Stefanini won 6-4 6-3Julieta Pareja60%Lucrezia Stefanini40%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardLloyd Harris won 2-6 6-2 7-6(10)Henrique Rocha39%Lloyd Harris61%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardHugo Gaston won 6-1 6-3Hugo Gaston62%Andre Ilagan38%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardPolina Iatcenko won 7-5 6-1Polina Iatcenko64%Andrea Lazaro Garcia36%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 2–1FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardRei Sakamoto won 6-3 6-3Rei Sakamoto65%Alexandre Muller35%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardColton Smith won 7-6(2) 2-6 6-4Jerome Kym68%Colton Smith32%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardPablo Llamas Ruiz won 6-2 4-6 7-6(11)Vitaliy Sachko28%Pablo Llamas Ruiz72%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · Q32 · HardToby Samuel won 4-6 6-4 5-0Toby Samuel73%Cristian Garin27%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardRobin Montgomery won 2-6 6-2 6-2Carson Branstine24%Robin Montgomery76%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardLiam Draxl won 6-4 6-2Liam Draxl84%Andrew Johnson16%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,759—67%
Challenger Men3,643—63%
Challenger Women914—65%
ITF Men5,320—67%
ITF Women5,096—67%
Yesterday · 26 Aug8 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 11.1 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days26 Aug 2026W75 Bytom · R32Gaia Maduzzi beat Caijsa Wilda Hennemann 6-1 6-4Pre-match: Gaia Maduzzi 8%Surprise score92

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.