Rei Sakamoto vs Alexandre MullerUS Open Qualifying Round of 64

US Open · ATP · Qualifying Round of 64
#157ATP
1608ELO
1589Hard ELO
$235kYTD
$494kCAREER
20 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWLWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 27 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 6 · 4th on
#138ATP
1665ELO
1630Hard ELO
$426kYTD
$4.3MCAREER
29 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLWWLLLL
Sakamoto R.
6-3 6-3
Muller A.
Sakamoto R.
662
Muller A.
330

Rei Sakamoto defeated Alexandre Muller 6-3, 6-3 in the qualifying 64 round of the US Open. Sakamoto hit 8 aces and committed 1 double fault, while Muller had 6 aces and 2 double faults. Sakamoto converted 43% of break points and won 79% of first-serve points to secure the win, taking 3 service breaks to Muller's 0.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-03-19Miami MastersR128hardAlexandre Muller6-4 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
65%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
53%
46%
Service points won·Slight edge
65%
59%
Return points won·Even
38%
34%
Break points saved·Even
60%
62%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.5
2.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.0
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
49
72
Break points saved·Even
87
90
Break points won·Dominant
8
46
Deciding sets·Even
93
95
Tiebreaks·Dominant
23
84

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Sakamoto R.65%
Muller A.35%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Sakamoto R. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.5Hard Elo 1589
Surface ELO
5.5+41 Hard Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 1608
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1664
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
7.07 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.74 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
61
83

Sakamoto R.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 70 games (7d) · Muller A.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 36 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CMainly clear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 72%

Draw