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Win Probability

Wednesday, 26 August 2026
20 rated matches · 2 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchFrancisca Jorge vs Mia Ristic50% · 50%Toss-up · US Open · Q64 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteColton Smith vs Andrea Pellegrino63% · 37%Slight edge · US Open · Q256 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches202 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardMia Ristic won 6-1 6-3Francisca Jorge50%Mia Ristic50%Toss-upH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardMary Stoiana won 6-7(5) 6-3 6-3Katie Swan50%Mary Stoiana50%Toss-upH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · Q256 · HardHugo Dellien won 6-4 6-4Moez Echargui51%Hugo Dellien49%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q256 · HardLiam Draxl won 6-4 6-7(5) 6-4Nicolas Mejia52%Liam Draxl48%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardElvina Kalieva won 3-6 6-3 6-4Elvina Kalieva48%Sofia Costoulas52%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–1FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardAnouk Koevermans won 6-3 7-5Anouk Koevermans47%Linda Klimovicova53%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardEkaterine Gorgodze won 7-6(3) 7-6Despina Papamichail53%Ekaterine Gorgodze47%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–4FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardLucie Havlickova won 6-2 2-6 7-6(6)Moyuka Uchijima47%Lucie Havlickova53%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardBu Yunchaokete won 6-4 6-4Bu Yunchaokete46%Borna Gojo54%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalUS Open · Q256 · HardDaniil Glinka won 6-3 6-2Pedro Martinez45%Daniil Glinka55%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalUS Open · Q256 · HardSeong Chan Hong won 6-3 7-6(1)Seong Chan Hong45%Nikoloz Basilashvili55%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardRobin Montgomery won 7-5 6-3Robin Montgomery55%Jeline Vandromme45%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardJoanna Garland won 6-3 6-4Priscilla Hon55%Joanna Garland45%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–2FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardJulieta Pareja won 6-4 6-2Julieta Pareja57%Iryna Shymanovich43%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardBianca Andreescu won 6-0 6-3Bianca Andreescu57%Veronika Podrez43%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardAndrea Lazaro Garcia won 5-7 7-6(6) 6-1Mai Hontama60%Andrea Lazaro Garcia40%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardMackenzie Mcdonald won 6-4 6-4Thiago Seyboth Wild40%Mackenzie Mcdonald60%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardCristian Garin won 6-2 7-6(5)Elias Ymer62%Cristian Garin38%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 3–0FinalUS Open · Q64 · HardVendula Valdmannova won 5-7 6-3 6-1Vendula Valdmannova62%Aliaksandra Sasnovich38%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q256 · HardColton Smith won 4-6 6-3 6-4Colton Smith63%Andrea Pellegrino37%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,759—67%
Challenger Men3,643—63%
Challenger Women914—65%
ITF Men5,320—67%
ITF Women5,096—67%

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.