Elias Ymer vs Cristian Garin — US Open Qualifying Round of 64

US Open · ATP · Qualifying Round of 64
Elias Ymer
SWE
Elias Ymer
#204ATP
1548ELO
1527Hard ELO
$191kYTD
$2.4MCAREER
30 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLLLWLLW
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 26 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 4 · 2nd on
Cristian Garin
CHI
Cristian Garin
#135ATP
1667ELO
1572Hard ELO
$365kYTD
$7.0MCAREER
30 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLLLWWL
Ymer E.
2-6 6-7
Garin C.
Ymer E.
2650
Garin C.
6772

Cristian Garin defeated Elias Ymer in the US Open qualifying round 64. The match ended with a score of 6-2, 7-6 in Garin's favor. Garin served 5 aces and committed 2 double faults, while Ymer had 2 aces and 5 double faults; Garin converted 44% of break points and Ymer converted 33%.

Around the match

  • Alcaraz confirmed to return to competition at US Open after five-month absence from wrist injury sustained at Barcelona Open in April.

    Garin C.Tennishead ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-06-27WimbledonR128grassCristian Garin6-3 7-5 6-4

Statistics

This season
Ymer E.Garin C.
1st serve in·Even
61%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
47%
Service points won·Even
64%
61%
Return points won·Even
35%
38%
Break points saved·Even
57%
57%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.7
3.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.7
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Ymer E.Garin C.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
22
42
Break points saved·Dominant
38
87
Break points won·Clear edge
14
28
Deciding sets·Clear edge
86
66
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
17
29

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Ymer E.62%
Garin C.38%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Ymer E. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Ymer E.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Garin C.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.4Hard Elo 1527
Surface ELO
5.6+45 Hard Elo edge
3.5Overall Elo 1548
ELO gap
6.5Overall Elo 1667
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
4.14 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
2.93 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Ymer E.Garin C.
Freshness·Clear edge
80
64

Ymer E.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 40 games (7d) · Garin C.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 82 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
28°CMainly clear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 47%

Draw