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Win Probability

Tuesday, 25 August 2026
20 rated matches · 3 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchDarya Astakhova vs Marina Bassols Ribera50% · 50%Toss-up · US Open · Q128 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteGauthier Onclin vs Vitaliy Sachko71% · 29%Clear favourite · US Open · Q256 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches203 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalUS Open · Q128 · HardMarina Bassols Ribera won 4-6 7-6(0) 6-3Darya Astakhova50%Marina Bassols Ribera50%Toss-upH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · Q128 · HardMary Stoiana won 6-4 6-3Harmony Tan50%Mary Stoiana50%Toss-upH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q256 · HardJack Pinnington Jones won 7-6(4) 6-4Jack Pinnington Jones50%Trevor Svajda50%Toss-upH2H 1–2FinalUS Open · Q256 · HardHenrique Rocha won 7-5 6-4Henrique Rocha49%Michael Mmoh51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · Q128 · HardJoanna Garland won 4-6 6-4 7-5Joanna Garland51%Leyre Romero Gormaz49%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · Q128 · HardKristina Liutova won 6-4 4-6 6-2Kristina Liutova49%Tatiana Prozorova51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · Q128 · HardMona Barthel won 6-3 7-5Whitney Osuigwe52%Mona Barthel48%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q256 · HardTimofey Skatov won 6-4 6-2Timofey Skatov53%Gilles Arnaud Bailly47%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q256 · HardLuka Mikrut won 6-3 6-4Luka Mikrut47%Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo53%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalMonterrey · R32 · HardDiane Parry won 6-7(5) 6-4 6-1Diane Parry45%Donna Vekic55%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalUS Open · Q128 · HardJulia Avdeeva won 7-6(5) 6-1Julia Avdeeva45%Katherine Sebov55%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q256 · HardAlexandre Muller won 7-5 6-0Laslo Djere56%Alexandre Muller44%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalUS Open · Q256 · HardC. O'Connell won 6-3 6-3Stefanos Sakellaridis56%C. O'Connell44%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q128 · HardLola Radivojevic won 6-4 6-3Lola Radivojevic56%Kajsa Rinaldo Persson44%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalUS Open · Q128 · HardStorm Hunter won 6-3 6-0Storm Hunter44%Maddison Inglis56%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalUS Open · Q128 · HardGabriela Andrea Knutson won 6-1 7-5Gabriela Andrea Knutson57%Varvara Lepchenko43%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q128 · HardSusan Bandecchi won 6-4 6-4Alina Charaeva43%Susan Bandecchi57%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 3–2FinalUS Open · Q128 · HardPriscilla Hon won 6-4 4-6 6-2Alice Tubello41%Priscilla Hon59%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q256 · HardDavid Jorda Sanchis won 6-2 2-6 7-6(2)Henri Squire65%David Jorda Sanchis35%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · Q256 · HardVitaliy Sachko won 7-5 7-5Gauthier Onclin71%Vitaliy Sachko29%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–2
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,759—67%
Challenger Men3,643—63%
Challenger Women914—65%
ITF Men5,320—67%
ITF Women5,096—67%

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.