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Win Probability

Monday, 24 August 2026
20 rated matches · 3 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchCoco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula49% · 51%Toss-up · Cincinnati · F · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteLiam Broady vs Marco Cecchinato69% · 31%Clear favourite · US Open · Q256 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches203 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalCincinnati · F · HardCoco Gauff won 6-2 6-4Coco Gauff49%Jessica Pegula51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 5–5FinalUS Open · Q128 · HardPolina Iatcenko won 6-2 6-1Polina Iatcenko51%Julie Struplova49%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · Q128 · HardJeline Vandromme won 6-1 6-3Greet Minnen51%Jeline Vandromme49%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · Q256 · HardHarry Wendelken won 6-4 3-6 6-3Harry Wendelken49%Stefano Travaglia51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q256 · HardAlexis Galarneau won 7-6(4) 6-3Keegan Smith49%Alexis Galarneau51%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · Q256 · HardBilly Harris won 6-1 6-3Gonzalo Bueno52%Billy Harris48%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q128 · HardElena Pridankina won 6-1 6-3Elena Pridankina47%Aliona Falei53%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · Q256 · HardAndrea Guerrieri won 6-3 6-7(4) 6-2Andrea Guerrieri53%August Holmgren47%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalUS Open · Q256 · HardFrederico Ferreira Silva won 7-5 6-2D. Dedura47%Frederico Ferreira Silva53%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalUS Open · Q256 · HardTomas Barrios Vera won 6-2 5-7 6-0Juan Carlos Prado Angelo47%Tomas Barrios Vera53%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 3–0FinalUS Open · Q256 · HardCristian Garin won 7-6(5) 4-6 7-6Spencer Johnson46%Cristian Garin54%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · Q128 · HardRebecca Marino won 6-1 6-4Rebecca Marino44%Fiona Ferro56%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q256 · HardJurij Rodionov won 6-1 6-4Kimmer Coppejans43%Jurij Rodionov57%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q256 · HardLuka Pavlovic won 6-3 6-7(3) 7-5Luka Pavlovic57%Juan Pablo Varillas43%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalUS Open · Q256 · HardRemy Bertola won 6-3 6-4Remy Bertola43%Alejandro Moro Canas57%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalUS Open · Q256 · HardAziz Dougaz won 6-4 6-2Federico Agustin Gomez42%Aziz Dougaz58%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalUS Open · Q128 · HardLinda Klimovicova won 6-3 6-3Linda Klimovicova61%Lisa Pigato39%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalUS Open · Q256 · HardGenaro Alberto Olivieri won 5-7 6-4 7-5Guy Den Ouden62%Genaro Alberto Olivieri38%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalUS Open · Q128 · HardAnouk Koevermans won 6-4 7-6(4)Anouk Koevermans63%Carole Monnet37%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · Q256 · HardMarco Cecchinato won 7-6(4) 6-3Marco Cecchinato31%Liam Broady69%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 1–1
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,759—67%
Challenger Men3,643—63%
Challenger Women914—65%
ITF Men5,320—67%
ITF Women5,096—67%
Yesterday · 23 Aug6 of 10 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 6.1 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days21 Aug 2026M15 Krakow · QFP. Juszczak beat Mate Valkusz 1-6 6-3 6-4Pre-match: P. Juszczak 12%Surprise score88

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.