Keegan Smith vs Alexis GalarneauUS Open Qualifying Round of 256

US Open · ATP · Qualifying Round of 256
#193ATP
1421ELO
1395Hard ELO
28 yrs · 201 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLLWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Monday, 24 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 11 · 4th on
#183ATP
1593ELO
1548Hard ELO
$177kYTD
$837kCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLWWLWW
Smith K.
6-7 3-6
Galarneau A.
Smith K.
6430
Galarneau A.
7762

Alexis Galarneau defeated Keegan Smith in the first round of US Open qualifying. The match ended with a score of 6-7, 3-6 in Galarneau's favor. Key stats included Galarneau's 4 aces and 1 service break, compared to Smith's 10 aces and 0 service breaks.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
74%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
55%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
67%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
66%
58%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.0
3.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.7
4.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 39). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
26
28
Break points saved·Slight edge
84
79
Break points won·Clear edge
3
16
Deciding sets·Dominant
48
22
Tiebreaks·Dominant
10
61

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Smith K.49%
Galarneau A.51%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.1Hard Elo 1395
Surface ELO
6.9+154 Hard Elo edge
2.9Overall Elo 1421
ELO gap
7.1Overall Elo 1593
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.27 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.65 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
89
78

Smith K.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d) · Galarneau A.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
24°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 48%

Draw