Andrea Guerrieri vs August HolmgrenUS Open Qualifying Round of 256

US Open · ATP · Qualifying Round of 256
#187ATP
1545ELO
1393Hard ELO
27 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWLWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 24 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 16 · 3rd on
#244ATP
1566ELO
1517Hard ELO
$132kYTD
$648kCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWWLLW
Guerrieri A.
6-3 6-7 6-2
Holmgren A.
Guerrieri A.
66462
Holmgren A.
37721

Andrea Guerrieri defeated August Holmgren in the US Open qualifying first round. The match ended with a score of 6-3, 6-7, 6-2 in favor of Guerrieri. Key stats included Guerrieri's 5 service breaks to Holmgren's 2, and both players having a first-serve win percentage of 71.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
75%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
59%
66%
Return points won·Slight edge
44%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
67%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.4
8.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.5
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
62
43
Break points saved·Slight edge
80
90
Break points won·Dominant
40
0
Deciding sets·Dominant
84
46
Tiebreaks·
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Guerrieri A.53%
Holmgren A.47%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.5Hard Elo 1393
Surface ELO
6.5+123 Hard Elo edge
4.7Overall Elo 1545
ELO gap
5.3Overall Elo 1566
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.77 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.36 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
62
88

Guerrieri A.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 74 games (7d) · Holmgren A.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
26°CMainly clear
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 54%

Draw