Darya Astakhova vs Marina Bassols RiberaUS Open Qualifying Round of 128

US Open · WTA · Qualifying Round of 128
#226WTA
1511ELO
1446Hard ELO
24 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLLLW
1 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 25 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 14 · 2nd on
#133WTA
1610ELO
1512Hard ELO
26 yrs · 165 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLWWWLL
Astakhova D.
6-4 6-7 3-6
Bassols Ribera M.
Astakhova D.
66031
Bassols Ribera M.
47762

Marina Bassols Ribera defeated Darya Astakhova in the qualifying round one of the US Open. The match lasted three sets, with Bassols Ribera taking the first set 6-4, Astakhova forcing a decider by taking the second set 7-6, and Astakhova ultimately winning 6-3.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
46%
Service points won·Even
55%
56%
Return points won·Even
50%
48%
Break points saved·Even
53%
54%
Aces / match·Even
1.0
0.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.8
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (42 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
76
27
Break points saved·Dominant
55
27
Break points won·Slight edge
97
89
Deciding sets·Dominant
97
58
Tiebreaks·
13

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC
Astakhova D.50%
Bassols Ribera M.50%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.2Hard Elo 1446
Surface ELO
5.8+66 Hard Elo edge
3.8Overall Elo 1511
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 1610
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.07 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.24 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
85
78

Astakhova D.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d) · Bassols Ribera M.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
26°CMainly clear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 46%

Draw