Harmony Tan vs Mary StoianaUS Open Qualifying Round of 128

US Open · WTA · Qualifying Round of 128
#215WTA
1585ELO
1547Hard ELO
28 yrs · 171 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 25 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 11 · 2nd on
#122WTA
1656ELO
1567Hard ELO
23 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWLLLWW
Tan H.
4-6 3-6
Stoiana M.
Tan H.
430
Stoiana M.
662

Mary Stoiana lost to Harmony Tan in the qualifying round one of the US Open, 6-4, 6-3. Stoiana hit one ace and two double faults, while Tan also had one ace and three double faults. Stoiana won 76 percent of her first serves and converted 57 percent of her break points, but was unable to overcome Tan's four service breaks to one.

Key context

  • Match story: Mary Stoiana closed it out in two sets, 6–4 6–3.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
54%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
48%
Service points won·Even
59%
58%
Return points won·Even
44%
45%
Break points saved·Even
59%
56%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.8
1.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 48). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Tan H.50%
Stoiana M.50%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.8Hard Elo 1547
Surface ELO
5.2+20 Hard Elo edge
4.1Overall Elo 1585
ELO gap
5.9Overall Elo 1656
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.77 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.43 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
91
58

Tan H.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d) · Stoiana M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 79 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 57%

Draw