Timofey Skatov vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly — US Open Qualifying Round of 256
US Open · ATP · Qualifying Round of 256
#205ATP
1544ELO
1479Hard ELO
$110kYTD
$1.1MCAREER
25 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWLWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 25 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 9 · 1st on
BELWC#240ATP
1476ELO
1457Hard ELO
20 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWLLWL
Skatov T.6-4 6-2
Arnaud Bailly G.
Skatov T.
662
Arnaud Bailly G.
420
Timofey Skatov defeated Gilles Arnaud Bailly in the first round of US Open qualifying. The match ended in straight sets, 6-4, 6-2 in favor of Skatov.
Key context
- Match story: Timofey Skatov dropped just 6 games past Gilles Arnaud Bailly.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Even
61%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
50%
Service points won·Even
63%
59%
Return points won·Even
38%
38%
Break points saved·Even
58%
58%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.1
1.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.6
2.3
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (42 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTCSkatov T.53%
Arnaud Bailly G.47%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry ScoreForm & Matchup
5.3+22 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO4.7Hard Elo 1457
5.8Overall Elo 1544
ELO gap4.2Overall Elo 1476
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
3.54 of last 10 on hard
Surface form3.54 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Freshness
Recent loadFreshness·Slight edge
79
89
Skatov T.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d) · Arnaud Bailly G.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°COvercast
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 58%