Mai Hontama vs Andrea Lazaro GarciaUS Open Qualifying Round of 64

US Open · WTA · Qualifying Round of 64
#167WTA
1480ELO
1442Hard ELO
26 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWLWWWLW
1 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 26 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 8 · 1st on
#142WTA
1618ELO
1525Hard ELO
31 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWLLW
Hontama M.
7-5 6-7 1-6
Lazaro Garcia A.
Hontama M.
76611
Lazaro Garcia A.
57862

Andrea Lazaro Garcia defeated Mai Hontama 5-7, 7-6, 6-1 in the qualifying 64 round of the US Open. The match saw both players hit three aces, with Lazaro Garcia committing three double faults to Hontama's five. Lazaro Garcia won 54% of her first-serve points, converted 40% of break points, and secured eight service breaks to Hontama's seven.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
68%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
59%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
46%
Service points won·Even
54%
56%
Return points won·Even
47%
48%
Break points saved·Slight edge
51%
56%
Aces / match·Even
0.8
1.0
Double faults / match·Even
3.6
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (44 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
29
35
Break points saved·Clear edge
27
51
Break points won·Even
96
99
Deciding sets·Slight edge
28
21
Tiebreaks·
68

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Hontama M.60%
Lazaro Garcia A.40%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Hontama M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.0Hard Elo 1442
Surface ELO
6.0+83 Hard Elo edge
3.3Overall Elo 1480
ELO gap
6.7Overall Elo 1618
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.17 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.86 of last 10 on hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
76
68

Hontama M.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d) · Lazaro Garcia A.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 73 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 47%

Draw