Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Mackenzie McdonaldUS Open Qualifying Round of 64

US Open · ATP · Qualifying Round of 64
#198ATP
1532ELO
1516Hard ELO
26 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWWWWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 26 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 11 · 3rd on
#146ATP
1606ELO
1604Hard ELO
$243kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLLWLLW
Seyboth Wild T.
4-6 4-6
Mcdonald M.
Seyboth Wild T.
440
Mcdonald M.
662

Mackenzie McDonald defeated Thiago Seyboth Wild in the US Open qualifying round 64. The match ended with a 6-4, 6-4 victory for McDonald. McDonald served 7 aces and committed 3 double faults, converting 50% of break points and winning 85% of first-serve points, compared to Seyboth Wild's 9 aces, 2 double faults, 25% break point conversion, and 75% first-serve win percentage.

Around the match

  • Thank you, New York. Thank you, US Open. Thank you to every single fan who supported me, pushed me, believed in me and shared all these emotions with me over the years. Forever grateful. Forever New York.

    Seyboth Wild T.FOX Sports

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Mackenzie Mcdonald edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
55%
Service points won·Even
64%
62%
Return points won·Even
38%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.4
4.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
14
28
Break points saved·Even
87
87
Break points won·Dominant
12
73
Deciding sets·Clear edge
28
6
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
2
10

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Seyboth Wild T.40%
Mcdonald M.60%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Mcdonald M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.9Hard Elo 1516
Surface ELO
6.1+88 Hard Elo edge
4.1Overall Elo 1532
ELO gap
5.9Overall Elo 1606
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.93 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.74 of last 10 on hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
86
61

Seyboth Wild T.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 35 games (7d) · Mcdonald M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 72 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
26°CClear
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 58%

Draw