Toby Samuel vs Cristian GarinUS Open Qualifying Round of 32

US Open · ATP · Qualifying Round of 32
#110ATP
1745ELO
1729Hard ELO
$217kYTD
$332kCAREER
23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Retired
Thursday, 27 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 9 · 1st on
#135ATP
1667ELO
1572Hard ELO
$365kYTD
$7.0MCAREER
30 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLLLLWWL
Samuel T.
4-6 6-4 5-0
Garin C.
Samuel T.
4652
Garin C.
6401

Toby Samuel defeated Cristian Garin in the second round of US Open qualifying, 4-6, 6-4, 5-0. Samuel converted all five of his break points and won five service breaks to Garin's three. Samuel hit four aces and two double faults in the match, compared to Garin's three aces and four double faults.

Around the match

  • Garin returns to competition after a three-month injury layoff and has shown encouraging form with two wins in New York this week.

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
70%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
47%
Service points won·Even
64%
61%
Return points won·Even
41%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
66%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.9
3.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.8
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Samuel T.73%
Garin C.27%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Samuel T. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.0+156 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Hard Elo 1572
6.0Overall Elo 1745
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 1667
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.89 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.63 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
62
64

Samuel T.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 81 games (7d) · Garin C.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 82 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CRain
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 87%

Draw