Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Clara TausonMonterrey Round of 16

Monterrey · WTA · Round of 16
#19WTA
1844ELO
1800Hard ELO
$1.0MYTD
$11MCAREER
31 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLLW
1 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 27 August 2026 ·
hard
#42WTA
1802ELO
1775Hard ELO
$911kYTD
$5.3MCAREER
23 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLLLWWW
Alexandrova E.
6-7 6-4 3-6
Tauson C.
Alexandrova E.
66631
Tauson C.
78462

Clara Tauson defeated Ekaterina Alexandrova in the Round of 16 at the Monterrey tournament, winning 7-6, 4-6, 6-3 on hard courts. Tauson and Alexandrova each converted one service break, with Tauson saving more break points at a lower percentage. Tauson hit six aces and eight double faults, compared to Alexandrova's 11 aces and 10 double faults.

Around the match

  • Tauson mounted a strong comeback from a set down to defeat Zarazua and advance, facing top seed Alexandrova next.

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Clara Tauson closed it out in three sets, 7–6 4–6 6–3.

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2021-09-13LuxembourgR16hardClara Tauson6-4 3-6 7-6
2021-03-01LyonR32hardClara Tauson6-3 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
43%
Service points won·Even
57%
59%
Return points won·Even
42%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
51%
58%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.4
6.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
4.0
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
52
72
Break points saved·Slight edge
71
76
Break points won·Even
95
91
Deciding sets·Clear edge
43
64
Tiebreaks·Dominant
16
72

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:50 UTC
Alexandrova E.45%
Tauson C.55%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.3+24 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.7Hard Elo 1775
5.5Overall Elo 1844
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1802
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
5.25 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.05 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
73
57

Alexandrova E.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d) · Tauson C.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 77 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 59%

Draw