Hugo Gaston vs Andre Ilagan — US Open Qualifying Round of 64

US Open · ATP · Qualifying Round of 64
Hugo Gaston
FRA
Hugo Gaston
#88ATP
1622ELO
1628Hard ELO
$376kYTD
$4.0MCAREER
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWLLLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 27 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 12 · 4th on
USAWC
Andre Ilagan
#184ATP
1543ELO
1518Hard ELO
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWWLWWW
Gaston H.
6-1 6-3
Ilagan A.
Gaston H.
662
Ilagan A.
130

Hugo Gaston defeated Andre Ilagan 6-1, 6-3 in the US Open qualifying round 64. Gaston served 2 aces to Ilagan's 3 and made 1 double fault to Ilagan's 5. Gaston won 85% of his first-serve points and converted 50% of his break points en route to the win.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Gaston H.Ilagan A.
1st serve in·Clear edge
53%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
52%
Service points won·Even
60%
63%
Return points won·Even
40%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
67%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.5
4.2
Double faults / match·Even
2.1
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Gaston H.Ilagan A.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
59
37
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
76
Break points won·Clear edge
35
17
Deciding sets·Slight edge
77
71
Tiebreaks·Dominant
82
14

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Gaston H.62%
Ilagan A.38%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Gaston H. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Gaston H.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Ilagan A.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.4+110 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Hard Elo 1518
6.0Overall Elo 1622
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 1543
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.06 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.88 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Gaston H.Ilagan A.
Freshness·Clear edge
61
77

Gaston H.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 82 games (7d) · Ilagan A.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 45 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CMainly clear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 72%

Draw