Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs C. O'Connell — US Open Qualifying Round of 64

US Open · ATP · Qualifying Round of 64
NOR
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
#149ATP
1620ELO
1598Hard ELO
$293kYTD
$747kCAREER
19 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWLLLLW
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 27 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 14 · 4th on
C. O'Connell
AUS
C. O'Connell
#105ATP
32 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWWLW
Budkov Kjaer N.
5-7 4-6
O'Connell C.
Budkov Kjaer N.
540
O'Connell C.
762

Chris O'Connell advanced to the next round of US Open qualifying with a 7-5, 6-4 win over Nicolai Budkov Kjaer in the 64-player qualifying draw. The match was part of the qualifying round one. O'Connell moved forward in the tournament.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Budkov Kjaer N.O'Connell C.
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
49%
Service points won·Even
63%
63%
Return points won·Even
38%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.0
8.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.5
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Budkov Kjaer N.O'Connell C.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
67
24
Break points saved·Clear edge
78
96
Break points won·Dominant
39
3
Deciding sets·Dominant
96
5
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
81
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Budkov Kjaer N.55%
O'Connell C.45%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Budkov Kjaer N.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
O'Connell C.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.25 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.37 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Budkov Kjaer N.O'Connell C.
Freshness·Slight edge
72
67

Budkov Kjaer N.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 55 games (7d) · O'Connell C.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 65 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 79%

Draw