Daniel Rincon vs Tomas Barrios VeraUS Open Qualifying Round of 32

US Open · ATP · Qualifying Round of 32
#208ATP
1522ELO
1514Hard ELO
23 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLLWLWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 27 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 10 · 1st on
#144ATP
1615ELO
1552Hard ELO
$207kYTD
$1.6MCAREER
28 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLLLLLWW
Rincon D.
4-6 3-6
Barrios Vera T.
Rincon D.
430
Barrios Vera T.
662

Tomas Barrios Vera defeated Daniel Rincon 6-4, 6-3 in the second round of US Open qualifying. Barrios Vera converted two of nine break points and won 74 percent of first-serve points. He hit one ace and one double fault, compared to 11 aces and two double faults for Rincon.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
51%
Service points won·Even
58%
61%
Return points won·Even
41%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
60%
Aces / match·Even
2.9
3.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.9
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (13 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
41
17
Break points saved·Clear edge
50
72
Break points won·Clear edge
34
10
Deciding sets·Dominant
93
8
Tiebreaks·Dominant
16
89

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Rincon D.51%
Barrios Vera T.49%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.5Hard Elo 1514
Surface ELO
5.5+38 Hard Elo edge
3.8Overall Elo 1522
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 1615
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.46 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.45 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
66
71

Rincon D.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 76 games (7d) · Barrios Vera T.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 61 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CRain
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 87%

Draw