Polina Iatcenko vs Andrea Lazaro GarciaUS Open Qualifying Round of 64

US Open · WTA · Qualifying Round of 64
#160WTA
1605ELO
1567Hard ELO
22 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLWLLLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 27 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 13 · 1st on
#142WTA
1618ELO
1525Hard ELO
31 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWLWWLLW
Iatcenko P.
7-5 6-1
Lazaro Garcia A.
Iatcenko P.
762
Lazaro Garcia A.
510

Polina Iatcenko defeated Andrea Lazaro Garcia 7-5, 6-1 in the second round of US Open qualifying. Iatcenko hit one ace and three double faults, while converting 42% of break points and winning 72% of first-serve points. Iatcenko broke Lazaro Garcia's serve five times, compared to one service break for Lazaro Garcia.

Key context

  • Match story: Polina Iatcenko came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 7–5 6–1.

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-11-27W35 Lousada 2R32hardPolina Iatcenko7-6(5) 6-1
2024-11-22W35 Lousada 1QFhardAndrea Lazaro Garcia6-1 7-5

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
46%
Service points won·Even
56%
56%
Return points won·Even
44%
48%
Break points saved·Slight edge
51%
56%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.9
1.0
Double faults / match·Even
3.3
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Iatcenko P.64%
Lazaro Garcia A.36%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Iatcenko P. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.5+42 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Hard Elo 1525
4.8Overall Elo 1605
ELO gap
5.2Overall Elo 1618
5.2Split 1–1 on hard
H2H
4.8Split 1–1 on hard
5.76 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.77 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
72
68

Iatcenko P.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 60 games (7d) · Lazaro Garcia A.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 73 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CRain
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 87%

Draw