Shintaro Mochizuki vs Francesco PassaroUS Open Qualifying Round of 32

US Open · ATP · Qualifying Round of 32
#117ATP
1475ELO
1425Hard ELO
$243kYTD
$1.6MCAREER
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLLWLWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Friday, 28 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 13 · 1st on
#207ATP
1592ELO
1562Hard ELO
$91kYTD
$1.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWLLLWL
Mochizuki S.
4-6 2-6
Passaro F.
Mochizuki S.
420
Passaro F.
662

Francesco Passaro defeated Shintaro Mochizuki in the second round of US Open qualifying, 6-4, 6-2. Passaro recorded 4 aces and 3 double faults, while converting 57% of break points and winning 78% of first-serve points. Mochizuki had 1 ace and 5 double faults, converting 33% of break points and winning 71% of first-serve points.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
51%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
63%
Return points won·Even
39%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.4
4.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.9
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
27
30
Break points saved·Slight edge
60
53
Break points won·Dominant
68
2
Deciding sets·Dominant
5
66
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
68
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Mochizuki S.52%
Passaro F.48%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.3Hard Elo 1425
Surface ELO
6.7+136 Hard Elo edge
3.5Overall Elo 1475
ELO gap
6.5Overall Elo 1592
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
5.25 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.97 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
70
73

Mochizuki S.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 58 games (7d) · Passaro F.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 62 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 67%

Draw