Andrey Chepelev vs Lorenzo CarboniM25 Lausanne Semi-final

M25 Lausanne · ITF · Semi-final
#374ATP
28 yrs · 178 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLLWWWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Saturday, 29 August 2026 ·
clay
#478ATP
1161ELO
1166Clay ELO
20 yrs · 168 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWLLLL
Chepelev A.
6-1 6-4
Carboni L.
Chepelev A.
662
Carboni L.
140

Andrey Chepelev defeated Lorenzo Carboni in the semifinals of the M25 Lausanne clay court tournament, winning 6-1, 6-4. Chepelev converted all four of his break points, compared to Carboni's two conversions out of four chances. Chepelev secured five service breaks to Carboni's one en route to the victory.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-04-14M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 3R32clayAndrey Chepelev7-6(5) 6-2

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
47%
Service points won·Even
59%
57%
Return points won·Even
39%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
53%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.5
1.8
Double faults / match·Even
2.3
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (15 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Chepelev A.46%
Carboni L.54%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
2.12 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.46 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
98
100

Chepelev A.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Carboni L.: 18 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
24°CPartly cloudy
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 36%

Draw