Luca Van Assche vs Cameron Norrie — US Open Round of 128

US Open · ATP · Round of 128
Luca Van Assche
FRA
Luca Van Assche
#40ATP
1701ELO
1681Hard ELO
$411kYTD
$2.6MCAREER
22 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWLWWLW
—
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
Cameron Norrie
GBR29
Cameron Norrie
#33ATP
1829ELO
1789Hard ELO
$963kYTD
$15MCAREER
31 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWLWWWLWWW
Van Assche L.
vs
Norrie C.

Luca Van Assche faces Cameron Norrie in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Cameron Norrie holds the paper edge — ranked #33, leading the head-to-head 3–0, defending last year's round of 32. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Van Assche L.38%
Norrie C.62%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Norrie C. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
6 common opponents · Van Assche L. 3–5 · Norrie C. 5–3
Both lost · same surface, 35 days apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Van Assche L.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Norrie C.
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.7Hard Elo 1681
Surface ELO
6.3+108 Hard Elo edge
3.4Overall Elo 1701
ELO gap
6.6Overall Elo 1829
3.9Trails 1–2 on hard
H2H
6.1Leads 2–1 on hard
6.36 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.47 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

40 vs 27 matches

Statistics

This season
Van Assche L.Norrie C.
1st serve in·Even
63%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
52%
Service points won·Even
62%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
36%
Break points saved·Even
63%
66%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.1
5.3
Double faults / match·Even
2.9
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (40 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Van Assche L.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Norrie C.

Norrie C.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Van Assche L.

Serve advantage — Van Assche L.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Van Assche L.Norrie C.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
29
87
Break points saved·Clear edge
77
98
Break points won·Dominant
7
85
Deciding sets·Dominant
51
97
Tiebreaks·Dominant
52
79

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Van Assche L.Norrie C.
Freshness·Clear edge
74
97

Van Assche L.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 57 games (7d) · Norrie C.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
27°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 73%

Head to head

0–3
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-11-04MetzR16hardCameron Norrie6-3 3-6 6-1
2024-01-08AucklandR16hardCameron Norrie6-3 6-7 6-1
2023-01-16Australian OpenR128hardCameron Norrie7-6 6-0 6-3

Draw