Jessica Pegula vs Elena Gabriela Ruse — US Open Round of 128
USA3
Pegula J.
Jessica Pegula faces Elena Gabriela Ruse in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Jessica Pegula holds the paper edge — ranked #3, defending last year's semi-final, a roughly 300-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Pegula J. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Jessica Pegula 179 games in 14 days, Elena Gabriela Ruse 10.
- Under pressure: Jessica Pegula has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 96 vs Elena Gabriela Ruse's 45).
- Surface form: Jessica Pegula 4 of 5, Elena Gabriela Ruse 2 of 5 on hard recently — Jessica Pegula the sharper of late.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadPegula J.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d) · Gabriela Ruse E.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.