Hanne Vandewinkel vs Karolina Pliskova — US Open Round of 128

US Open · WTA · Round of 128
BEL
Hanne Vandewinkel
#77WTA
1690ELO
1730Hard ELO
22 yrs
Last 10
LLWWWWWWWL
—
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
Karolina Pliskova
CZE
Karolina Pliskova
#56WTA
1869ELO
1811Hard ELO
34 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLWLWWWL
Vandewinkel H.
vs
Pliskova K.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Vandewinkel H.44%
Pliskova K.56%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
3 common opponents · Vandewinkel H. 1–2 · Pliskova K. 1–2 · small sample
Both lost · different surfaces (Clay × Hard)▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Vandewinkel H.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Pliskova K.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.0Hard Elo 1730
Surface ELO
6.0+80 Hard Elo edge
2.8Overall Elo 1690
ELO gap
7.2Overall Elo 1869
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.17 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.65 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

47 vs 17 matches

Statistics

This season
Vandewinkel H.Pliskova K.
1st serve in·Even
64%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
43%
Service points won·Even
60%
58%
Return points won·Even
44%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
55%
Aces / match·Even
3.7
4.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.2
5.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (47 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Vandewinkel H.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Pliskova K.

Pliskova K.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Vandewinkel H.

Serve advantage — Vandewinkel H.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Vandewinkel H.Pliskova K.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
78
87
Break points saved·Clear edge
70
86
Break points won·Even
91
93
Deciding sets·Even
93
96
Tiebreaks·
—
77

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Vandewinkel H.Pliskova K.
Freshness·Even
100
100

Vandewinkel H.: 15 days rest · Pliskova K.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 79%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw