Miomir Kecmanovic vs Denis Shapovalov — US Open Round of 128
Kecmanovic M.
Miomir Kecmanovic faces Denis Shapovalov in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Denis Shapovalov holds the paper edge — ranked #47, leading the head-to-head 6–0, defending last year's round of 32. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Shapovalov D. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Miomir Kecmanovic 64 games in 14 days, Denis Shapovalov 34.
- Under pressure: Denis Shapovalov has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 79 vs Miomir Kecmanovic's 28).
- Head-to-head: Denis Shapovalov leads the head-to-head 6–0, 0–5 on hard. Last met at Dallas 2025.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadKecmanovic M.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d) · Shapovalov D.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–6| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-03 | Dallas | R32 | hard | Denis Shapovalov | 6-3 6-7 6-3 |
| 2024-07-29 | Washington | R16 | hard | Denis Shapovalov | 4-6 6-4 6-2 |
| 2023-02-27 | Acapulco | R32 | hard | Denis Shapovalov | 6-7 6-0 7-5 |
| 2019-09-30 | Tokyo | R32 | hard | Denis Shapovalov | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2019-08-19 | Winston-Salem | R16 | hard | Denis Shapovalov | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2016-04-18 | USA F14 | F | clay | Denis Shapovalov | 7-5 2-6 7-6(6) |