Jaime Faria vs Jenson BrooksbyUS Open Round of 128

US Open · ATP · Round of 128
#70ATP
1735ELO
1615Hard ELO
$531kYTD
$1.4MCAREER
23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWWLLLW
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
#73ATP
1694ELO
1682Hard ELO
$546kYTD
$3.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLWLWWLW
Faria J.
vs
Brooksby J.

Jaime Faria faces Jenson Brooksby in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Jaime Faria holds the paper edge — ranked #70, defending last year's round of 128. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1, Jaime Faria ahead 1–0 on hard.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Faria J.49%
Brooksby J.51%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Freshness: Workload contrast: Jaime Faria 73 games in 14 days, Jenson Brooksby 40.
  • Under pressure: Jenson Brooksby has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 87 vs Jaime Faria's 54).
  • Head-to-head: The head-to-head is level 1–1, 1–0 on hard. Last met at Cincinnati 2026.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
9 common opponents · Faria J. 4–5 · Brooksby J. 4–6
Faria J. better · same surface, 11 days apart
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.2Hard Elo 1615
Surface ELO
5.8+67 Hard Elo edge
5.5Overall Elo 1735
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1694
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
6.97 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.55 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R64 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

50 vs 21 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
68%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
50%
Service points won·Even
65%
61%
Return points won·Even
39%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
52%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.1
2.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.9
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (50 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Faria J.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Brooksby J.

Brooksby J.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Faria J.

Serve advantage — Faria J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
54
87
Break points saved·Clear edge
76
90
Break points won·Dominant
22
82
Deciding sets·Clear edge
81
94
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
76
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
90
86

Faria J.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Brooksby J.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 40 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°COvercast
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 81%

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-08-14CincinnatiR128hardJaime Faria6-3 6-2
2025-05-26Roland GarrosR128clayJenson Brooksby6-1 3-6 6-3 6-2

Draw