Aleksandar Vukic vs Rei Sakamoto — US Open Round of 128
JPNQ
Vukic A.
Aleksandar Vukic faces Rei Sakamoto in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Aleksandar Vukic is the paper favourite — ranked #95, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 128 — but Rei Sakamoto rides a 4-match win streak. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Sakamoto R. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Aleksandar Vukic 40 games in 14 days, Rei Sakamoto 120.
- Under pressure: Rei Sakamoto has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 49 vs Aleksandar Vukic's 27).
- Last match: Rei Sakamoto edged Kei Nishikori in two tight sets (6–4 7–6).
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadVukic A.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Sakamoto R.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 70 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-24 | Tokyo | Q2 | hard | Aleksandar Vukic | 6-4 7-6 |