Renata Zarazua vs Polina Iatcenko — US Open Round of 128
Zarazua R.
Renata Zarazua faces Polina Iatcenko in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Renata Zarazua is the paper favourite — ranked #71, defending last year's round of 64, a roughly 70-point hard Elo advantage — but Polina Iatcenko arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 8 on hard to Renata Zarazua's 3.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Renata Zarazua comes in with 4 days of rest and 24 games in 14d, vs Polina Iatcenko's 2 and 60.
- Stage: Renata Zarazua defends last year's round of 64.
- Surface form: Renata Zarazua 3 of 8, Polina Iatcenko 4 of 8 on hard recently — Polina Iatcenko the sharper of late.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (41 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadZarazua R.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 24 games (7d) · Iatcenko P.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 60 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.