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Win Probability

Monday, 31 August 2026
20 rated matches · 2 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchElisabetta Cocciaretto vs Katerina Siniakova50% · 50%Toss-up · US Open · R128 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteCarlos Alcaraz vs Roman Safiullin94% · 6%Strong favourite · US Open · R128 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches202 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalUS Open · R128 · HardKaterina Siniakova won 6-3 6-2Elisabetta Cocciaretto50%Katerina Siniakova50%Toss-upH2H 1–3FinalUS Open · R128 · HardDiane Parry won 7-5 6-4Viktorija Golubic53%Diane Parry47%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–1FinalUS Open · R128 · HardJacob Fearnley won 4-6 6-2 4-6 7-5 6-3Martin Landaluce54%Jacob Fearnley46%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardN. Podoroska won 4-6 7-6(5) 6-3N. Podoroska54%Simona Waltert46%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardTaylor Townsend won 6-2 6-3Maja Chwalinska46%Taylor Townsend54%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · R128 · HardAlejandro Tabilo won 6-3 6-2 6-7(7) 6-3Yannick Hanfmann45%Alejandro Tabilo55%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 3–1FinalUS Open · R128 · HardAnn Li won 7-5 6-1Ann Li59%Antonia Ruzic41%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardDiana Shnaider won 6-0 6-4Daria Snigur40%Diana Shnaider60%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardCristina Bucsa won 7-5 4-6 6-1Sara Bejlek62%Cristina Bucsa38%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardJurij Rodionov won 7-6(2) 6-0 7-6Jurij Rodionov38%Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard62%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · R128 · HardLilli Tagger won 6-0 7-6(4)Lilli Tagger64%Tamara Korpatsch36%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 3–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardLuciano Darderi won 6-2 3-6 6-2 7-5Luciano Darderi67%Harry Wendelken33%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardMananchaya Sawangkaew won 6-4 6-3Mananchaya Sawangkaew68%Panna Udvardy32%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardStefanos Tsitsipas won 4-6 7-6(3) 6-1 6-4Stefanos Tsitsipas25%Arthur Fils75%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 5–1FinalUS Open · R128 · HardBrandon Nakashima won 6-2 6-1 6-0Brandon Nakashima79%Sebastian Baez21%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalUS Open · R128 · HardLinda Noskova won 7-5 6-1Katie Volynets21%Linda Noskova79%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · R128 · HardElina Svitolina won 6-1 6-2Elina Svitolina88%Solana Sierra12%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardMariano Navone won 7-6(5) 5-7 4-6 6-2 6-1Mariano Navone12%Novak Djokovic88%Strong favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · R128 · HardKarolina Muchova won 6-3 6-0Sinja Kraus8%Karolina Muchova92%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardCarlos Alcaraz won 6-4 6-4 6-4Roman Safiullin6%Carlos Alcaraz94%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–1
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,759—67%
Challenger Men3,643—63%
Challenger Women914—65%
ITF Men5,320—67%
ITF Women5,096—67%
Yesterday · 30 Aug16 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 12.9 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days30 Aug 2026Como · Q32Andrea Colombo beat Gianmarco Ferrari 7-5 7-6(5)Pre-match: Andrea Colombo 19%Surprise score81

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.