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Win Probability

Tuesday, 1 September 2026
20 rated matches · 2 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchMaria Sakkari vs Robin Montgomery52% · 48%Toss-up · US Open · R128 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAryna Sabalenka vs Maria Camila Osorio Serrano94% · 6%Strong favourite · US Open · R128 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches202 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalUS Open · R128 · HardMaria Sakkari won 2-6 7-5 6-2Maria Sakkari52%Robin Montgomery48%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · R128 · HardJessica Bouzas Maneiro won 6-3 6-4Darja Vidmanova52%Jessica Bouzas Maneiro48%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardPaula Badosa won 6-1 6-4Daria Kasatkina47%Paula Badosa53%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 4–5FinalUS Open · R128 · HardMattia Bellucci won 6-4 6-2 6-0Mattia Bellucci58%Zsombor Piros42%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalUS Open · R128 · HardJan Lennard Struff won 6-4 6-3 6-3Camilo Ugo Carabelli37%Jan Lennard Struff63%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardMadison Keys won 7-5 6-4Madison Keys64%Alina Korneeva36%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · R128 · HardElise Mertens won 6-4 6-4Kaitlin Quevedo32%Elise Mertens68%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · R128 · HardFrances Tiafoe won 6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3 6-4Martin Damm31%Frances Tiafoe69%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalUS Open · R128 · HardLearner Tien won 6-4 6-1 6-2Nuno Borges28%Learner Tien72%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardLorenzo Musetti won 6-3 6-3 7-5Arthur Fery28%Lorenzo Musetti72%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardFlavio Cobolli won 3-6 2-6 6-3 6-4 6-4Francisco Comesana27%Flavio Cobolli73%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardBen Shelton won 1-6 6-1 7-6(3) 6-2Ben Shelton75%Tallon Griekspoor25%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardMarco Trungelliti won 0-6 7-6(5) 1-6 6-3 6-4Juncheng Shang76%Marco Trungelliti24%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · R128 · HardIga Swiatek won 6-2 6-3Iga Swiatek84%Xiyu Wang16%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardFelix Auger Aliassime won 7-5 4-6 6-3 7-5Felix Auger Aliassime85%Rinky Hijikata15%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardFrancisco Cerundolo won 6-4 6-3 7-5Filip Misolic15%Francisco Cerundolo85%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–3FinalUS Open · R128 · HardTaylor Fritz won 6-3 6-2 6-4Taylor Fritz88%Darwin Blanch12%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · R128 · HardMirra Andreeva won 6-2 6-2Mirra Andreeva90%Janice Tjen10%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardAryna Sabalenka won 6-2 6-4Aryna Sabalenka94%Maria Camila Osorio Serrano6%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalUS Open · R128 · HardElena Rybakina won 6-3 6-2Thea Frodin6%Elena Rybakina94%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%
Yesterday · 31 Aug12 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 13.7 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days30 Aug 2026US Open · R128Sebastian Gorzny beat Raphael Collignon 3-6 6-3 3-6 6-3 7-6(9)Pre-match: Sebastian Gorzny 8%Surprise score92

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.