Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Jan Lennard StruffUS Open Round of 128

US Open · ATP · Round of 128
#77ATP
1759ELO
1642Hard ELO
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLLWWLL
0 — 3
Sets
Tuesday, 1 September 2026 ·
hard
Court 13 · 2nd on
#44ATP
1694ELO
1634Hard ELO
36 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLWLWWW
Ugo Carabelli C.
4-6 3-6 3-6
Lennard Struff J.
Ugo Carabelli C.
4330
Lennard Struff J.
6663

Jan Lennard Struff defeated Camilo Ugo Carabelli in the Round of 128 at the US Open. The match ended with a score of 6-4, 6-3, 6-3 in favor of Struff. He hit 15 aces and 3 double faults, converting 71% of break points and securing 5 service breaks, compared to Ugo Carabelli's 7 aces, 13 double faults, 33% break point conversion, and 1 service break.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
50%
Service points won·Even
61%
65%
Return points won·Even
38%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.7
11.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.6
3.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
47
50
Break points saved·Clear edge
81
97
Break points won·Dominant
32
5
Deciding sets·Dominant
94
65
Tiebreaks·Dominant
3
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Ugo Carabelli C.37%
Lennard Struff J.63%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Lennard Struff J. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.1+7 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.9Hard Elo 1634
5.8Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
4.2Overall Elo 1694
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.13 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
2.83 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
94
78

Ugo Carabelli C.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Lennard Struff J.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 51 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
26°CMainly clear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 85%

Draw