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Win Probability

Wednesday, 2 September 2026
20 rated matches · 2 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchBrandon Nakashima vs Alex Michelsen49% · 51%Toss-up · US Open · R64 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAlexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Sonego95% · 5%Strong favourite · US Open · R128 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches202 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalUS Open · R64 · HardAlex Michelsen won 6-3 6-4 6-4Brandon Nakashima49%Alex Michelsen51%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardBenjamin Bonzi won 6-4 3-6 6-3 6-2Alex Molcan48%Benjamin Bonzi52%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardIgnacio Buse won 3-6 6-3 6-3 6-7(6) 6-1Marcos Giron52%Ignacio Buse48%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardMichael Zheng won 6-4 6-4 6-2Fabian Marozsan52%Michael Zheng48%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalUS Open · R64 · HardAnn Li won 5-7 7-6(4) 6-4Ann Li48%Donna Vekic52%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalUS Open · R64 · HardEkaterina Alexandrova won 6-1 2-6 6-3Kimberly Birrell48%Ekaterina Alexandrova52%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalUS Open · R64 · HardEmma Navarro won 3-6 6-2 6-3Emma Navarro57%Caty Mcnally43%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 2–3FinalUS Open · R64 · HardLeylah Fernandez won 6-4 6-1Mananchaya Sawangkaew41%Leylah Fernandez59%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · R64 · HardDenis Shapovalov won 6-0 6-4 7-6(7)Denis Shapovalov60%Luca Van Assche40%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalUS Open · R64 · HardDaniel Merida Aguilar won 6-7(3) 6-2 6-4 6-4Daniel Merida Aguilar39%Andrey Rublev61%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · R64 · HardTaylor Townsend won 6-1 6-1Taylor Townsend64%Taylah Preston36%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · R64 · HardAnna Kalinskaya won 7-5 2-6 6-3Xin Yu Wang36%Anna Kalinskaya64%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–3FinalUS Open · R64 · HardDiana Shnaider won 6-1 7-6(4)Karolina Pliskova35%Diana Shnaider65%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalUS Open · R64 · HardBen Shelton won 6-3 5-7 7-6(3) 7-5Ben Shelton68%Hubert Hurkacz32%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · R128 · HardZachary Svajda won 6-3 6-1 6-7(5) 6-2Zachary Svajda71%Daniel Altmaier29%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–1FinalUS Open · R64 · HardSorana Cirstea won 6-2 7-5Diane Parry27%Sorana Cirstea73%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R64 · HardKarolina Muchova won 6-1 6-0Katie Boulter14%Karolina Muchova86%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardCoco Gauff won 6-3 6-4Zeynep Sonmez13%Coco Gauff87%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardAlex De Minaur won 6-2 6-2 6-4Andrea Guerrieri12%Alex De Minaur88%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R128 · HardAlexander Zverev won 6-4 3-6 6-7(7) 7-5 6-4Alexander Zverev95%Lorenzo Sonego5%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 7–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%
Yesterday · 1 Sep18 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 14.7 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days1 Sep 2026US Open · R128Yulia Putintseva beat Belinda Bencic 4-6 7-5 6-3Pre-match: Yulia Putintseva 17%Surprise score83

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.