Brandon Nakashima vs Alex MichelsenUS Open Round of 64

US Open · ATP · Round of 64
#17ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWWLWWW
0 — 3
Sets
Wednesday, 2 September 2026 ·
hard
Grandstand · 1st on
#46ATP
1825ELO
1810Hard ELO
22 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLWWL
Nakashima B.
3-6 4-6 4-6
Michelsen A.
Nakashima B.
3440
Michelsen A.
6663

Alex Michelsen defeated Brandon Nakashima in the Round of 64 at the US Open. The match ended with a score of 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 in favor of Michelsen. Michelsen converted 57% of his break points and secured 4 service breaks, compared to Nakashima's 1, en route to the victory.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

  • Match story: Alex Michelsen closed it out in three sets, 6–3 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
68%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
78%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
52%
Service points won·Even
69%
65%
Return points won·Even
34%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
10.7
6.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
0.8
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
43
60
Break points saved·Even
96
92
Break points won·Dominant
3
32
Deciding sets·Clear edge
55
76
Tiebreaks·Even
81
84

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Nakashima B.49%
Michelsen A.51%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Hard Elo 1788
Surface ELO
5.3+22 Hard Elo edge
5.2Overall Elo 1839
ELO gap
4.8Overall Elo 1825
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.88 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.77 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
90
41

Nakashima B.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d) · Michelsen A.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 149 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°COvercast
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 80%

Draw