Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo — London Semi-final
Nakashima B.
Brandon Nakashima faces Francisco Cerundolo in the London semi-final on grass. Francisco Cerundolo holds the paper edge — ranked #27.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:22 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Brandon Nakashima leads on Serve Rating (60), Francisco Cerundolo on Return Rating (82).
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Francisco Cerundolo has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 88 vs 58).
- Fatigue load: Francisco Cerundolo carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on grass
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadNakashima B.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 34 games (7d) · Cerundolo F.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 47 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.