Alex Michelsen vs Jan Lennard StruffMontreal Round of 128

Montreal · ATP · Round of 128
#42ATP
1825ELO
1810Hard ELO
$797kYTD
$4.7MCAREER
21 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 4 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 4 · 3rd on
#41ATP
1694ELO
1634Hard ELO
$492kYTD
$13MCAREER
36 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Michelsen A.
6-1 3-6 6-1
Lennard Struff J.
Michelsen A.
6362
Lennard Struff J.
1611

Alex Michelsen defeated Jan Lennard Struff in the Round of 128 in Montreal. The match ended with a score of 6-1, 3-6, 6-1 in favor of Michelsen. Michelsen hit 4 aces and 3 double faults, while Struff had 6 aces and 1 double fault; Michelsen won 79% of first-serve points and converted 67% of break points, compared to Struff's 64% and 100%, respectively; Michelsen secured 4 service breaks to Struff's 1.

Key context

  • Match story: Alex Michelsen closed it out in three sets, 6–1 3–6 6–1.

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-22Madrid MastersR64clayAlex Michelsen6-2 6-1

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
50%
Service points won·Even
65%
65%
Return points won·Even
36%
33%
Break points saved·Even
63%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.6
11.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.6
4.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
57
50
Break points saved·Slight edge
90
96
Break points won·Clear edge
22
3
Deciding sets·Slight edge
81
71
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
83
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC
Michelsen A.72%
Lennard Struff J.28%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Michelsen A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.2+176 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.8Hard Elo 1634
6.6Overall Elo 1825
ELO gap
3.4Overall Elo 1694
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
8.59 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.24 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
59
95

Michelsen A.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 74 games (7d) · Lennard Struff J.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
19°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 72%

Draw