Denis Shapovalov vs Luca Van Assche — US Open Round of 64

US Open · ATP · Round of 64
Denis Shapovalov
CAN
Denis Shapovalov
#47ATP
1771ELO
1775Hard ELO
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WLWLLWWWWL
—
Sets
Wednesday, 2 September 2026 ·
hard
Court 13 · 1st on
Luca Van Assche
FRA
Luca Van Assche
#40ATP
1701ELO
1681Hard ELO
22 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWWLWWL
Shapovalov D.
vs
Van Assche L.

Denis Shapovalov faces Luca Van Assche in the US Open round of 64 on hard. Denis Shapovalov holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 90-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Shapovalov D.60%
Van Assche L.40%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Shapovalov D. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
4 common opponents · Shapovalov D. 1–3 · Van Assche L. 3–2 · small sample
Both lost · same surface · 7 months apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Shapovalov D.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Van Assche L.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.2+94 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.8Hard Elo 1681
5.9Overall Elo 1771
ELO gap
4.1Overall Elo 1701
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
5.96 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.27 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

20 vs 40 matches

Statistics

This season
Shapovalov D.Van Assche L.
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
54%
Service points won·Even
63%
62%
Return points won·Slight edge
35%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
56%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.7
3.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.6
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 40). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Shapovalov D.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Van Assche L.

Van Assche L.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Shapovalov D.

Serve advantage — Van Assche L.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Shapovalov D.Van Assche L.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
79
26
Break points saved·Clear edge
97
77
Break points won·Dominant
70
7
Deciding sets·Dominant
91
51
Tiebreaks·Dominant
72
40

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Shapovalov D.Van Assche L.
Freshness·Clear edge
80
68

Shapovalov D.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 37 games (7d) · Van Assche L.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 38 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

1st on Court 13 · Starts at 2:00 PM · up next on court

  1. 1MShapovalov D. v Van Assche L.This match
  2. 2WLi A. v Vekic D.
  3. 3MVacherot V. v Majchrzak K.

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
22°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 73%

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-05-27Roland GarrosR128clayDenis Shapovalov6-3 6-4 6-4

Draw