Luca Van Assche vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Estoril Round of 16

Estoril · ATP · Round of 16
Luca Van Assche
FRA
Luca Van Assche
#40ATP
1701ELO
1639Clay ELO
22 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 23 July 2026 ·
clay
ESTADIO MILLENNIUM · 1st on
Pablo Carreno Busta
ESP8
Pablo Carreno Busta
#66ATP
1801ELO
1767Clay ELO
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWLWLW
Van Assche L.
6-3 4-6 6-2
Carreno Busta P.
Van Assche L.
6462
Carreno Busta P.
3621

Luca Van Assche defeated Pablo Carreno Busta in the Round of 16 at the Estoril tournament. The match was played on clay and Van Assche won with a score of 6-3, 4-6, 6-2. The win advanced Van Assche to the next round.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

  • Match story: Luca Van Assche closed it out in three sets, 6–3 4–6 6–2.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Van Assche L.Carreno Busta P.
1st serve in·Even
63%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
55%
Service points won·Even
62%
64%
Return points won·Even
42%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
54%
Aces / match·Even
3.1
3.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.8
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Van Assche L.Carreno Busta P.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
24
45
Break points saved·Clear edge
77
93
Break points won·Dominant
7
60
Deciding sets·Dominant
51
15
Tiebreaks·Dominant
30
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Van Assche L.33%
Carreno Busta P.67%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Carreno Busta P. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Van Assche L.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Carreno Busta P.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.4Clay Elo 1638
Surface ELO
6.6+128 Clay Elo edge
3.8Overall Elo 1701
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 1800
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
8.08 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.58 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Van Assche L.Carreno Busta P.
Freshness·Slight edge
87
93

Van Assche L.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d) · Carreno Busta P.: 10 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
23°CMainly clear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 63%

Draw