Cameron Norrie vs Denis Shapovalov — Los Cabos Semi-final
GBR5
CAN8
Norrie C.
Cameron Norrie faces Denis Shapovalov in the Los Cabos semi-final on hard. Cameron Norrie holds the paper edge — ranked #39, leading the head-to-head 3–0.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Cameron Norrie brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 35), Denis Shapovalov the stronger return game (Return Rating 53).
- Last match: Denis Shapovalov dropped just 6 games past Dalibor Svrcina.
- Last match: Cameron Norrie handed Bernard Tomic a second-set bagel in a 6–1 6–0 win.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadNorrie C.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 37 games (7d) · Shapovalov D.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 42 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
3–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-09-27 | San Diego | QF | hard | Cameron Norrie | 6-3 6-1 |
| 2021-06-19 | London | SF | carpet | Cameron Norrie | 7-5 6-3 |
| 2021-06-14 | Queen's Club | SF | grass | Cameron Norrie | 7-5 6-3 |