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Win Probability

Thursday, 3 September 2026
20 rated matches · 2 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchZachary Svajda vs Arthur Gea49% · 51%Toss-up · US Open · R64 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAryna Sabalenka vs Polina Iatcenko96% · 4%Strong favourite · US Open · R64 · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches202 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalUS Open · R64 · HardArthur Gea won 5-7 6-3 6-2 6-2Zachary Svajda49%Arthur Gea51%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R64 · HardCristina Bucsa won 7-6(6) 6-7(0) 7-6(6)Cristina Bucsa48%Himeno Sakatsume52%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · R64 · HardAlejandro Tabilo won 2-6 7-6(4) 7-6(3) 6-2Alexei Popyrin45%Alejandro Tabilo55%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalUS Open · R64 · HardBenjamin Bonzi won 6-2 7-6(4) 6-0Benjamin Bonzi55%Ignacio Buse45%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalUS Open · R64 · HardMichael Zheng won 6-3 2-6 6-2 6-3Bu Yunchaokete43%Michael Zheng57%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalUS Open · R64 · HardLuciano Darderi won 6-3 6-7(5) 6-4 6-4Luciano Darderi62%Dalibor Svrcina38%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 2–4FinalUS Open · R64 · HardYibing Wu won 7-5 6-3 6-1James Duckworth31%Yibing Wu69%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R64 · HardMariano Navone won 3-6 6-3 6-4 7-6(4)Matteo Berrettini73%Mariano Navone27%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 3–2FinalUS Open · R64 · HardFrancisco Cerundolo won 5-7 7-5 4-6 6-2 6-3Jan Lennard Struff27%Francisco Cerundolo73%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalUS Open · R64 · HardLinda Noskova won 6-4 6-2Lanlana Tararudee26%Linda Noskova74%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · R128 · HardIva Jovic won 7-5 6-3Iva Jovic75%Magdalena Frech25%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 2–0FinalUS Open · R64 · HardFrances Tiafoe won 6-3 7-6(2) 7-5Rei Sakamoto25%Frances Tiafoe75%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · R64 · HardFlavio Cobolli won 3-6 6-3 6-4 7-5Tristan Schoolkate22%Flavio Cobolli78%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R64 · HardKaren Khachanov won 6-7(5) 6-3 6-2 6-2Felix Auger Aliassime79%Karen Khachanov21%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 4–2FinalUS Open · R64 · HardNaomi Osaka won 6-2 5-7 6-1Naomi Osaka82%Katerina Siniakova18%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–1FinalUS Open · R64 · HardElina Svitolina won 6-2 6-7(6) 6-4Elina Svitolina86%Maya Joint14%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R64 · HardMirra Andreeva won 6-0 6-2Mirra Andreeva90%Eva Lys10%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R64 · HardCarlos Alcaraz won 4-6 6-0 6-3 6-2Jaime Faria5%Carlos Alcaraz95%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R64 · HardIga Swiatek won 6-3 6-2Iga Swiatek95%N. Podoroska5%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalUS Open · R64 · HardAryna Sabalenka won 6-1 6-1Aryna Sabalenka96%Polina Iatcenko4%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%
Yesterday · 2 Sep16 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 13.1 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days2 Sep 2026W50 Leiria · R32S. Johnson beat Harmony Tan 6-2 6-1Pre-match: S. Johnson 8%Surprise score92

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.