Iga Swiatek vs N. Podoroska — US Open Round of 64

US Open · WTA · Round of 64

POL8

Iga Swiatek

#8WTA

2064ELO

2022Hard ELO

$2.2MYTD

25 yrs · 176 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWWWWWWWW

—

Sets

Thursday, 3 September 2026 · 14:00

hard

ARG

N. Podoroska

#447WTA

29 yrs

Last 10

WLWLWLLLLW

Swiatek I.

Podoroska N.

Iga Swiatek faces N. Podoroska in the US Open round of 64 on hard. Iga Swiatek holds the paper edge — ranked #8, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's quarter-final.

Around the match

Swiatek faced Rybakina in Cincinnati where the latter retired with a left ankle injury two weeks before the US Open.
Swiatek I.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC

Swiatek I.95%

Podoroska N.5%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Swiatek I. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Iga Swiatek 72 games in 14 days, N. Podoroska 32.
Last match: N. Podoroska dropped the opening set before beating Simona Waltert 4–6 7–6 6–3.
Last match: Iga Swiatek dropped just 5 games past Xiyu Wang.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

2 common opponents · Swiatek I. 2–1 · Podoroska N. 0–2 · small sample

Swiatek I. better · different surfaces (Clay × Grass)▾

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Swiatek I.

7.2

Strong advantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Podoroska N.

6.3

Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Form & Matchup

5.0First meeting on hard

H2H

5.0First meeting on hard

8.69 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

5.15 of last 10 on hard

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

7.0Reached the quarters here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

34 vs 7 matches

Statistics

This season

Swiatek I.Podoroska N.

1st serve in·Even

63%

62%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

67%

62%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

50%

43%

Service points won·Slight edge

61%

55%

Return points won·Even

48%

47%

Break points saved·Even

54%

53%

Aces / match·Slight edge

2.5

1.4

Double faults / match·Dominant

3.1

5.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 7). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Swiatek I.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Podoroska N.

Podoroska N.serving57% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Swiatek I.

Serve advantage — Swiatek I.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Swiatek I.Podoroska N.

Serve

—

Return

—

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Freshness

Recent load

Swiatek I.Podoroska N.

Freshness·Even

Swiatek I.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Podoroska N.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-fastrewards aggression

SlowFast

Weather forecast

28°COvercast

Wind 19 km/hHumidity 80%

Head to head

1–0

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2020-10-08	Roland Garros	SF	clay	Iga Swiatek	6-2 6-1

Iga Swiatek vs N. Podoroska — US Open Round of 64

Around the match

Win Probability

Key context

Common opponents

Umpiry Score

Statistics

Serve vs return

Serve & return on hard

Freshness

Conditions

Head to head

Draw

Serve & return on hard