Cristina Bucsa vs Himeno Sakatsume — US Open Round of 64

US Open · WTA · Round of 64
Cristina Bucsa
ESP
Cristina Bucsa
#40WTA
1722ELO
1710Hard ELO
$900kYTD
28 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLWLLLLL
—
Sets
Thursday, 3 September 2026 ·
hard
JPNQ
Himeno Sakatsume
#144WTA
1611ELO
1599Hard ELO
25 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLLLLWW
Bucsa C.
vs
Sakatsume H.

Cristina Bucsa faces Himeno Sakatsume in the US Open round of 64 on hard. Cristina Bucsa is the paper favourite — ranked #40, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 110-point hard Elo advantage — but Himeno Sakatsume arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 8 on hard to Cristina Bucsa's 3.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Bucsa C.49%
Sakatsume H.51%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
7 common opponents · Bucsa C. 2–5 · Sakatsume H. 1–6
Both lost · same surface▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Bucsa C.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Sakatsume H.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.4+111 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Hard Elo 1599
6.4Overall Elo 1722
ELO gap
3.6Overall Elo 1611
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.44 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.56 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

18 vs 44 matches

Statistics

This season
Bucsa C.Sakatsume H.
1st serve in·Even
64%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
61%
63%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
40%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
53%
58%
Return points won·Even
45%
43%
Break points saved·Clear edge
43%
56%
Aces / match·Slight edge
0.9
2.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.1
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 44). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Bucsa C.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Sakatsume H.

Sakatsume H.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Bucsa C.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Bucsa C.Sakatsume H.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
26
62
Break points saved·Dominant
16
64
Break points won·Clear edge
83
97
Deciding sets·Clear edge
44
62
Tiebreaks·
5
—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Bucsa C.Sakatsume H.
Freshness·Even
72
75

Bucsa C.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 70 games (7d) · Sakatsume H.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 66 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
28°COvercast
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 80%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw