Cristina Bucsa vs Jasmine PaoliniMerida Semi-final

Merida · WTA · Semi-final
#41WTA
1722ELO
1710Hard ELO
$900kYTD
$5.0MCAREER
28 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLWWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 23 February 2026
hard
#15WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
Bucsa C.
7-5 6-4
Paolini J.
Bucsa C.
762
Paolini J.
540

Cristina Bucsa defeated Jasmine Paolini 7-5 6-4 in the Merida semi-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Jasmine Paolini came in ranked #15. Cristina Bucsa extended the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-01-08AdelaideR32hardCristina Bucsa6-3 6-3
2023-08-14CincinnatiR32hardJasmine Paolini6-1 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Bucsa C.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Paolini J.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Bucsa C.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Bucsa C.Paolini J.
22
Serve
31
52
Return
55

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
59%
58%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
40%
50%
Service points won·Even
53%
56%
Return points won·Even
46%
43%
Break points saved·Clear edge
43%
56%
Aces / match·Clear edge
0.8
2.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (13 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
60
89
Break points saved·Slight edge
79
87
Break points won·Slight edge
93
99
Deciding sets·Dominant
68
97
Tiebreaks·Dominant
27
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.0Hard Elo 1710
Surface ELO
7.0+163 Hard Elo edge
2.8Overall Elo 1722
ELO gap
7.2Overall Elo 1905
5.4
H2H
4.6
3.0
Surface form
3.3
0.0Lost last 4
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
9.3
Minutes 14d
9.0
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
79

Paolini J.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
23°CMainly clear
Wind 22 km/hHumidity 49%