Aryna Sabalenka vs Polina Iatcenko — US Open Round of 64
Sabalenka A.
Aryna Sabalenka faces Polina Iatcenko in the US Open round of 64 on hard. Aryna Sabalenka is the paper favourite — ranked #1, defending the title, a roughly 630-point hard Elo advantage — but Polina Iatcenko rides a 4-match win streak.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Sabalenka A. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Aryna Sabalenka comes in with 2 days of rest and 41 games in 14d, vs Polina Iatcenko's 3 and 93.
- Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Polina Iatcenko rising, Aryna Sabalenka cooling.
- Last match: Polina Iatcenko dropped the opening set before beating Renata Zarazua 4–6 6–4 7–6.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadSabalenka A.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Iatcenko P.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 78 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.