Naomi Osaka vs Katerina Siniakova — US Open Round of 64
Osaka N.
Naomi Osaka faces Katerina Siniakova in the US Open round of 64 on hard. Naomi Osaka holds the paper edge — ranked #13, leading the head-to-head 2–1, defending last year's semi-final.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Osaka N. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Naomi Osaka has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 88 vs 35).
- Serve & return: Naomi Osaka brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 75), Katerina Siniakova the stronger return game (Return Rating 53).
- Last match: Katerina Siniakova dropped just 5 games past Elisabetta Cocciaretto.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadOsaka N.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d) · Siniakova K.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
2–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | Wimbledon | R64 | grass | Naomi Osaka | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2019-05-27 | Roland Garros | R32 | clay | Katerina Siniakova | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2018-02-12 | Doha | R64 | hard | Naomi Osaka | 6-4 6-0 |