Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Naomi Osaka — Washington Quarter-final
JPN3
Cocciaretto E.
Elisabetta Cocciaretto faces Naomi Osaka in the Washington quarter-final on hard. Naomi Osaka holds the paper edge — ranked #13, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 150-point hard Elo advantage.
Around the match
Osaka reaches her first Washington quarterfinal after Krueger retires with a right ankle injury; she's now in three consecutive quarterfinals across tournaments.
Osaka N.WTA Tennis ↗
Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 02:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Osaka N. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Naomi Osaka has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 91 vs 20).
- Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Naomi Osaka rising, Elisabetta Cocciaretto cooling.
- Last match: Naomi Osaka advanced when Ashlyn Krueger retired.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadCocciaretto E.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 36 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-18 | Miami | R128 | hard | Naomi Osaka | 6-3 6-4 |