Tristan Schoolkate vs Flavio Cobolli — US Open Round of 64
Schoolkate T.
Tristan Schoolkate faces Flavio Cobolli in the US Open round of 64 on hard. Flavio Cobolli is the paper favourite — ranked #6, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 300-point hard Elo advantage — but Tristan Schoolkate rides a 4-match win streak. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Cobolli F. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Tristan Schoolkate grades 36 on serve, Flavio Cobolli 41 on return.
- Under pressure: Flavio Cobolli has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 75 vs Tristan Schoolkate's 46).
- Last match: Flavio Cobolli came back from two sets down to beat Francisco Comesana.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadSchoolkate T.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 116 games (7d) · Cobolli F.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.